Verevkina O. I. Otsenka vklada material'no-tekhnicheskogo snabzheniya v riski narusheniya bezopasnosti po prichine nekachestvennogo remonta i nesoblyudeniya tekhnologii [Evaluation of the contribution of logistics to risks of security breaches due to poor maintenance and lack of technology]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019. Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 82–89. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.3(63).82–89.
The article describes the method of assessment and analysis of functional risks on the infrastructure of the railway transport system. The basics of the method are widely stated in the open press, but there have been no description of the risk assessment subsystem due to poor repair. This article bridges this gap. A general scheme of traffic safety risk assessment by factors has been developed. The proposed method is to transform the function of probability of repair rules’ violation into that of traffic safety violation due to poor maintenance. To do this, we solve the problem of minimizing the residual in a nonlinear equation that determines the scaled factors of the probability of traffic safety violations due to repair. The article provides the results of calculations at the level of the linear enterprise, as well as the scheme and the main features of the algorithm for assessing the actual and projected contributions of the human factor and factors of logistics to the risks of rail transport safety violations due to poor repair and violation of technology. The developed algorithm can be used as a subsystem for factor analysis of train traffic safety risks at different levels of track facilities and artificial structures. The calculations have shown that an objective account of the impact of the completeness of logistics, staffing and staff turnover allow complementing the list of measures by the actions, whose implementation has a positive impact on the dynamics of risks towards their reduction. The calculations show a significant non-linear degree of risk reduction with positive dynamics of factors (improvement) of the material-and-technical and "human" factors. At the same time, even though the state of the factors of "technical state" deteriorated to some extent and risks associated with this increased, this is more than compensated by the improvement of logistics and human factor.
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