Risk assessment methods and forecasting emergency development scenarios for railway transportation

Receipt date: 
14.09.2019
Bibliographic description of the article: 

Anardovich S. S., Rush E. A. Metody otsenki riskov i prognozirovaniye stsenariyev razvitiya chrezvychaynykh situatsiy pri zheleznodorozhnykh perevozkakh [Risk assessment methods and forecasting emergency development scenarios for railway transportation]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2020, Vol. 65, No. 1, pp. 66–75. 10.26731/1813-9108.2020.1(65).66-75

Section: 
Year: 
2020
Journal number: 
УДК: 
656.2
DOI: 

10.26731/1813-9108.2020.1(65).66-75

Article File: 
Pages: 
66
75
Abstract: 

The need to develop new methods of risk analysis in emergency situations is due to the large number of accidents and the severity of their implications, especially during the transport of dangerous cargo by rail. The article explores modern methods of risk analysis of emergency situations and presents the results of their comparative evaluation. Traditional and new approaches to ensuring the safety of rail transportation are considered. The effectiveness of the use of GIS technologies to analyze the risk of emergency situations and predict their consequences is established. The applicability of a number of methods for assessing the risks of emergency situations and the standards of acceptable risk of emergency situations for solving specific problems is considered. The paper presents main approaches to proving the safety of transport and assessing environmental risks. It was noted that ensuring the efficiency and safety of multimodal transportation requires an integrated approach in the field of risk assessment, taking into account the characteristics of transport, the geography of transportation, and administrative and legal restrictions. A parametric approach using rank estimates is presented as the most effective and affordable. It is proposed to use a parametric approach using rank estimates, as the most effective and affordable. The degree of depreciation of fixed assets of the railway infrastructure was studied as one of the most important factors affecting the level of safety. The ranking of this indicator was carried out and negative dynamics was established in the entire observation period. The method of interval forecasting was used to analyze the dynamics and make a forecast, with a high degree of probability showing a trend towards a further increase in the degree of depreciation of fixed assets. It is concluded that it is necessary to take measures to reduce the studied factor.

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