Verevkina O. I. Primenenie gibridnogo metoda otsenki funktsional'nykh riskov narusheniya bezopasnosti dvizheniya v khozyaistve puti na zheleznodorozhnom transporte [The results of applying the hybrid method to assess functional risks of traffic safety infringement on the regional and linear levels in the railway transport]. Sovremennyye tekhnologii. Sistemnyy analiz. Modelirovaniye [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 55–64. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.1(61).55–64
Development of a hybrid risk assessment method (hereinafter referred to as a hybrid method) in the direction of taking into account the dynamics of factors in the short-term perspective (from a quarter to a year). Adaptation of the hybrid method to be used at linear enterprises of JSC “Russian Railways”, specification of the input data for calculation. To achieve the challenging tasks, work was undertaken to develop functional risk assessment system algorithms in the infrastructure of JSC Russian Railways to manage the technical condition of the railway track and traffic safety as part of the development of the automated system URRAN as an element of the digitalization of traffic safety risks assessment. The development is carried out on the basis of classifiers of risk factors for the direction of the infrastructure in the current regulatory documents. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by the results of testing in the priority areas of the North Caucasian Railway polygon at the level of linear enterprises. The proposed approach allows the formation of specific risk reduction measures and is conducted not only by strengthening the protective complex, countering measures, human factor indicators, provision with maintenance, but also measures to affect reliability indicators by changing the volume and types of repairs, the spending ratio of capital and current assets. The output parameters for constructing this task system are tasks for quantities that reflect the level of risks. At the output of a task, we obtain the adjustment of volumes by types of repairs, which relate not only to the current, but primarily to capital expenditures in the Roadway department and in the Infrastructure Directorate at the network level.
1. Metodika identifikatsii riskov v oblasti funktsional'noi bezopasnosti dvizheniya poezdov na infrastrukture OOO «RZhD» dlya upravleniya puti i sooruzhenii (Rasporyazhenie OAO «RZhD» No. 4246r ot 01.12.2016g.) [Methods of identifying risks in the field of functional safety of train traffic on the infrastructure of Russian Railways for the management of the track and facilities (Order of Russian Railways No. 4246r dated December 01, 2016)]. Moscow, 2016.
2. Mozhaev A.S. Sovremennoe sostoyanie i nekotorye napravleniya logiko-veroyatnostnykh metodov analiza sistem. Chast' I [The current state and some areas of logical-probabilistic methods for analyzing systems. Part I]. Teoriya i informatsionnaya tekhnologiya modelirovaniya bezopasnosti slozhnykh system [Theory and Information Technology for Modeling the Security of Complex Systems]. Issue 1. In Ryabinin I.A. (ed.). St. Petersburg: IPMASh RAN Publ., 1994, pp. 23–53.
3. Mozhaev A.S. Obshchii logiko-veroyatnostnyi metod analiza nadezhnosti slozhnykh system [General logic-probabilistic method for analyzing the reliability of complex systems]. Leningrad: Grechko VMA Publ., 2000. 68 p.
4. Ryabinin I.A., Cherkasov G.N. Logiko-veroyatnostnye metody issledovaniya nadezhnosti strukturno-slozhnykh system [Logical and probabilistic methods for studying the reliability of structurally complex systems]. Moscow: Radio i svyaz' Publ., 1981. 248 p.
5. Verevkina O.I. O sisteme otsenki riskov v oblasti funktsional'noi bezopasnosti dvizheniya poezdov [On the system of risk assessment in the field of functional traffic safety]. Mir Transporta [World of Transport], 2017, Vol. 15. No. 6 (73), pp. 206–221.
6. Verevkina O.I. O gibridnom metode prognozirovaniya riskov na zheleznodorozhnom transporte na osnovanii obshchego logikoveroyatnostnogo metoda [On a hybrid method for predicting risks in railway transport on the basis of a common logical-probabilistic
method]. Izvestiya Peterburgskogo universiteta putei soobshcheniya [Izvestiya of Peterburg Transport University], 2017. Vol.14. No. 4, pp. 615–627.
7. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke riskov na zheleznodorozhnoi infrastrukture OAO «RZhD» (razrabotchik NIIAS, utv. 21.11.2011 g.) [Methodological recommendations on risk assessment on the railway infrastructure of JSC “Russian Railways” (developed by NIIAS, approved on November 21, 2011)]. Moscow, 2011. 104 p.
8. Metodika otsenki riskov v oblasti funktsional'noi bezopasnosti dvizheniya na infrastrukture OAO «RZhD»[Risk assessment methodology in the field of functional traffic safety on the infrastructure of Russian Railways]. Moscow: OAO «RZhD» Publ., 2016. 72 p.
9. GOST R 54505–2011. Bezopasnost' funktsional'naya. Upravlenie riskami na zheleznodorozhnom transporte» [Security is functional. Railway risk management]. Moscow: Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology Publ., 2011. 34 p.
10. Metodika normirovaniya i otsenki riska transportnykh proisshestvii i inykh sobytii, svyazannykh s narusheniyami pravil bezopasnosti dvizheniya i ekspluatatsii zheleznodorozhnogo transporta [Methods of rationing and risk assessment of traffic accidents and other events related to violations of traffic safety rules and operation of railway transport]. Moscow: OAO «RZhD» Publ., 2016. 60 p.
11. GOST R ISO 31000–2010. Menedzhment riska. Printsipy i rukovodstvo. Utv. prikazom Federal'nogo agentstva po tekhnicheskomu regulirovaniyu i metrologii ot 21.12.2010 g. No. 883-st [Risk management. Principles and leadership. Approved by order of the Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology dated December 21, 2010, No. 883-st.]. Moscow, 2010.
12. GOST R MEK 62502-2014. Menedzhment riska. Analiz dereva sobytii [Risk management. Analysis of the event tree]. Moscow: Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology Publ., 2015. 30 p.
13. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po postroeniyu matritsy riskov (rasporyazhenie OAO «RZhD» No. 1946r ot 22.09.2016 g.) [Methodological recommendations on the construction of a risk matrix (order of JSC “Russian Railways” No. 1946r dated September 22, 2016)]. Moscow, 2016.
14. STO RZhD 02.041-2011. Upravlenie resursami, riskami i nadezhnost'yu na etapakh zhiznennogo tsikla (URRAN). Sistemy, ustroistva i oborudovanie putevogo khozyaistva. Trebovaniya nadezhnosti i funktsional'noi bezopasnosti [Management of resources, risks and reliability at the stages of the life cycle (URRAN). Systems, devices, and equipment for track facilities. Requirements of reliability and functional safety]. Moscow, 2011.
15. Quinlan J.R. Induction of decision trees. Mach.Learn, 1986. Vol.I, pp. 81-106.
16. Armstrong J.S. Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. USA, 2002, p. 849.
17. Manwani N., Sastry P.S. Geometric decision tree. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man. Cybern 2012. Vol.42. Issue 1, pp. 181-192.
18. Lim T.S., Loh W.Y., Shih Y.S. An empirical comparision of decision trees and other classification methods. Tech. Report, Dep.Stat.Univ.Wisconsin, 1997, pp. 1-38.