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Verevkina O. I. Primenenie gibridnogo metoda otsenki funktsional'nykh riskov narusheniya bezopasnosti dvizheniya v khozyaistve puti na zheleznodorozhnom transporte [The results of applying the hybrid method to assess functional risks of traffic safety infringement on the regional and linear levels in the railway transport]. Sovremennyye tekhnologii. Sistemnyy analiz. Modelirovaniye [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 55–64. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.1(61).55–64

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656.25 + 06


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Development of a hybrid risk assessment method (hereinafter referred to as a hybrid method) in the direction of taking into account the dynamics of factors in the short-term perspective (from a quarter to a year). Adaptation of the hybrid method to be used at linear enterprises of JSC “Russian Railways”, specification of the input data for calculation. To achieve the challenging tasks, work was undertaken to develop functional risk assessment system algorithms in the infrastructure of JSC Russian Railways to manage the technical condition of the railway track and traffic safety as part of the development of the automated system URRAN as an element of the digitalization of traffic safety risks assessment. The development is carried out on the basis of classifiers of risk factors for the direction of the infrastructure in the current regulatory documents. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by the results of testing in the priority areas of the North Caucasian Railway polygon at the level of linear enterprises. The proposed approach allows the formation of specific risk reduction measures and is conducted not only by strengthening the protective complex, countering measures, human factor indicators, provision with maintenance, but also measures to affect reliability indicators by changing the volume and types of repairs, the spending ratio of capital and current assets. The output parameters for constructing this task system are tasks for quantities that reflect the level of risks. At the output of a task, we obtain the adjustment of volumes by types of repairs, which relate not only to the current, but primarily to capital expenditures in the Roadway department and in the Infrastructure Directorate at the network level.

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