Arsenova A. S., Anisimov V. A. O vliyanii struktury valovogo regional'nogo produkta na velichinu passazhiropotoka [Use of «digital twin» technology during the locomotives’ repair management]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019. Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 98–106. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.3(63).98–106
10.26731/1813-9108.2019.3(63).98–106
The transport industry plays a crucial role in the socio-economic development of the country. Transport favorably affects the geographical movement of the population, the growth of labor productivity, and also increases the standard of living of the population. Today in Russia, special attention is paid to the development of railway transport, in particular, the development of railway passenger traffic. In December 2009, there was a successful launch of high-speed Sapsan trains on the most popular passenger route in Russia, Moscow - St. Petersburg. The purpose of the presented work is to study the influence of the gross regional product and its structure on the amount of passenger traffic. In this paper, we analyzed the existing methods of forecasting, as a result of which, it was concluded that it was impossible to choose the optimal method. On the basis of the considered advantages and disadvantages of the forecasting methods, it was decided to conduct a regression analysis of changes in passenger traffic of railway transport, as a result of which a significant regression equation was obtained. The values of the gross regional product published by the Federal State Statistics Service for the subjects of the Russian Federation for the period from 2010 to 2016 were taken as the initial population data for the analysis performed. As a result of the work done, it was concluded that there is a close relationship between the considered sections of the GRP and the value of the passenger traffic, as well as the feasibility of further research on the directions between the large centers of origin and reduction of the passenger traffic.
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