Decision-making in the conditions of partial uncertainty of background information when introducing speed traffic on existing lines

Decision making under uncertainty is based on the fact that the probabilities of different scenarios are unknown. In this case the subject is guided, on the one hand, by his risk preference, and on the other hand, by the criterion of selection from all alternatives according to the compiled “decision matrix”. Decision making under risk conditions is based on the fact that each situation can be given the probability of its realization. This allows you to weigh each of the efficiency values and choose the situation with the lowest risk level for implementation. Reconstructive measures to increase the speeds on the railway should be designed to provide the safety and uninterrupted operation of trains, reduce the time of passengers on the way, while ensuring the required volume of transportation and the lowest construction and operating costs. The solution of the tasks of designing the reconstruction of the railway is carried out on the basis of decision theory methods. The need to make decisions for which their predetermining conditions are not fully taken into account, as well as their subsequent influence, are encountered in all areas of technology, in particular, with the introduction of high-speed traffic on railways. The technique of selecting technical parameters of reconstruction with increasing speeds in conditions of uncertainty of the initial information can be carried out according to the algorithm proposed in the article, the essence of which is to establish a set of design conditions and assign various options that can form a matrix of indicators of particular criteria. The next step is to make a decision under conditions of uncertainty using various criteria: minimax criterion (MM-criterion, Wald’s criterion), Savage’s criterion (S-criterion, minimum risk criterion), Hermeyer’s criterion, production criterion (P-criterion) and others. Each of the criteria can give the decision-maker a specific algorithm of actions.