About the influence of the gross regional product structure on the passenger flow value

Дата поступления: 
05.10.2020
Библиографическое описание статьи: 

Grigor’eva A. S., Anisimov V. A. O problemakh matematicheskogo modelirovaniya prognozirovaniya passazhiropotokov dlya vysokoskorostnykh magistraley [About the influence of the gross regional product structure on the passenger flow value]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2020, No. 4 (68), pp. 230–239. – DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2020.4(68).230-239

Рубрика: 
Год: 
2020
Номер журнала (Том): 
УДК: 
656.2.052.432
DOI: 

10.26731/1813-9108.2020.4(68).230-239

Файл статьи: 
Страницы: 
230
239
Аннотация: 

High-speed rail lines are engineering and technical systems that include very complex, high-cost capital construction projects. Therefore, one of the most significant factors in reducing the risks of inefficient investment in the construction of high-speed railways is a transport forecasting model that allows estimating the prospective volumes of passenger and freight traffic with the required accuracy. The aim of the authors' research is to study the problem of mathematical modeling of passenger traffic forecasting and to develop a mathematical model of predicting passenger traffic for high-speed railways, taking into account the peculiarities of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The article presents a retrospective analysis of the solution of the problem of mathematical modeling of passenger traffic by Russian and foreign scientists. Since passenger traffic is formed under the influence of a great number of different factors, the most significant ones were determined based on the analysis of scientific works devoted to the forecasting of passenger traffic: population, average per capita income, gross domestic and regional products. At the same time, scientists have mixed opinions about the degree of its influence in relation to the latter. In this regard, the authors investigated the influence of the main sections of the gross regional product on passenger traffic on the routes of the planned high-speed highways Moscow – St. Petersburg and Moscow-Kazan using correlation and regression analysis. The results obtained by the authors and the analysis of the works of modern scientists have shown that in the conditions of market relations, the complexity of forecasting the size and structure of passenger traffic has increased due to the dynamism and uncertainty of the population's demand for transportation in different modes of transport due to competition in the transport services market. The competition factor can be formalized and taken into account when developing mathematical models of predicting passenger traffic in certain types of transport through the parameters of passenger transportation: travel time; cost of transportation; level of comfort.

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