Mathematical simulation of the probability of the car sharing availability at a walking distance

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Berfel’d M. A., Koryagin M. E., Katargin V. N. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie veroyatnosti nalichiya avtomobilya karsheringa v shagovoi dostupnosti [Mathematical simulation of the probability of the car sharing availability at a walking distance]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2020, No. 3(67), pp. 54–59. 10.26731/1813-9108.2020.3(67).54-59

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Currently, driving a car is an integral part of life in Russian cities. But parking problems make car ownership less attractive. Therefore, car sharing services are being actively developed in the world and in Russia. The main advantage for the client is the absence of parking problems. Unlike a taxi, the client has the ability to drive a car. First of all, this service is developing in large cities. However, one of the largest cities in Russia, Krasnoyarsk, has gained a negative experience in car sharing. To analyze the problems, a mathematical model of the efficiency of the car search was built. First, statistics were collected that showed a low demand for car sharing. Then the district with the most orders was selected. For this district, formulas for calculating the average distance between the client and the car are obtained. The model is based on the probability of finding a car within walking distance. The obtained formulas made it possible to calculate the probability of finding a car depending on the number of free cars and the maximum distance to it. It turned out that with a small car fleet, it is almost impossible to find a free car in the walking distance. It is concluded that it is necessary to significantly increase the size of the car fleet in order to provide the necessary quality of service to stimulate demand.

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