Anardovich S. S., Rush E. A. Otsenka ushcherbov ot chrezvychainykh situatsii tekhnogennogo kharaktera na zheleznodorozhnom transporte [Risk assessment methods and forecasting emergency development scenarios for railway transportation]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2020, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 121–128. 10.26731/1813-9108.2020.2(66).121-128
This paper defines the concept of the stability of the transportation process, presents the correlation of the stability and vulnerability criteria of the transportation process in an emergency and lists the main signs of an emergency. It considers the concept of risk and gives approaches to its quantitative determination. The article describes the structure of objects of railway transport, which depends on the scale of the consequences arising from the violation of their functioning. It substantiates the importance of forecasting when transporting dangerous goods. It is noted that applying damage assessment in forecasting and preventing emergencies is effective. The authors study the methods for determining the damage of the Ministry of Emergencies of Russia, of the Russian Railways, and the private method of determining environmental risks based on the damage determination. In accordance with the Unified Interdepartmental Methodology for Assessing Damage from Emergencies, it is proposed to calculate the total economic damage by combining direct and indirect environmental damage. It is assumed that the determination of physical parameters is carried out separately for each of the industries using their own methods. Guidelines for calculating damage from traffic accidents is the simplest, but at the same time does not have sufficient capabilities to calculate damage from emergencies. The most complete one seems to be the methodology for calculating environmental risks, which make it possible to quantify risk and make managerial decisions both in terms of minimizing the likelihood of hazard factors and in reducing environmental damage if they occur. The conclusion about the selection criteria for damage assessment methods is made.
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