Poltavskaya J. O., Dimov A. V., Poliakov M. M. Modelirovaniye nadezhnosti funktsionirovaniya transportnoy sistemy s uchetom variatsiy prodolzhitel'nosti dvizheniya [Modeling functioning reliability of the transport system taking into account traffic duration variations]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019. Vol. 64, No. 4. Pp. 162–167. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.4(64).162-167
Traffic duration is one of the most important parameters used to assess the performance of transport systems. Its change is due to several factors, including the characteristics of the vehicle itself; traffic organization and traffic management systems; traffic accidents and weather conditions. Thus, the time taken by the passenger to reach the destination will be different for similar trips in different periods. This highlights the need to model the reliability of a transport system based on a utility function that includes an estimate of time and cost. It is noted that reliability is an important qualitative indicator of the functioning of the transport system, as its decline leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of public transport compared to individual. The article deals with the basic models that allow assessing the reliability of the transport system: the model of average dispersion and planning model, which are an effective tool for assessing the level of reliability of the transport system and the proposed solutions to improve it. Testing of the model can be carried out on transport and route networks of the city of different scales. It is proposed to determine the duration of the movement as a statistical distribution with a certain probability and regularity. Thus, the reliability of a transport system can be defined as a measure of the dispersion (or spread) of a traffic duration distribution, and the modeling process requires the collection of reliable data with a set sample size.
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