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Lebedeva O. A., Gozbenko V. E., Kargapol’tsev S. V. Opredeleniye vneshnikh silovykh faktorov, deystvuyushchikh na bespilotnyy letatel'nyy apparat na kriticheskikh rezhimakh poleta [Optimizing urban transportation using entropy model]. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie [Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling], 2019. Vol. 64, No. 4. Pp. 131–137. DOI: 10.26731/1813-9108.2019.4(64). 131-137

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Trucks make long trips consisting of several tours that are not connected by logistic solutions. To predict the demand for urban transportation, it is necessary to develop and test alternative models, since not all options for transporting goods follow the traditional four-stage approach. The article presents two main applications of entropy in transport modeling, indicating the aspects and limitations that should be taken into account when developing the algorithm. Of all the methods for distributing traffic flows, the most likely ones will be those that make it possible to generate the greatest number of solutions, taking into account limitations. The limitations include the total number of vehicle rides at each node. The paper considers a model of entropy maximization based on the trip, designed to predict freight flows taking into account information about aggregate demand (the number of trips made or attracted to each node). It is tested on real data. The calculated results show the accuracy and efficiency of the approach. The estimated flows correspond to the observed values. It is equally important that the model parameters and the resulting distribution of the trip length were conceptually justified. The longer the trip, the less likely it is that the flows will be distributed on this trip, which is consistent with the aspect that routes with a minimum length are economically more profitable. As a result of applying the entropy model to forecast the demand for freight trips in urban areas, it is possible to find vehicle flows that correspond to real freight traffic patterns.

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